Posted by: natehughart | February 20, 2010

Salary Cap Update (and what that could mean for the Kings)

Now that the Kings have changed their lineup, and Sham has updated his page, this is the team I see being here next year barring some unusual circumstances.

Andres Nocioni, Beno Udrih, Francisco Garcia, Omri Casspi, Tyreke Evans, Carl Landry, Jason Thompson, Spencer Hawes and Donte Greene.

That’s 9 guys. When you add them up you get to the total of 33,046,420. (Right now some people are adding the Kings total with Joey Dorsey included. I’m not going to do that until I see it being very possible that the Kings are going to keep anybody other than those 8.

These are the players who are waived but are being paid by the Kings this year: Kenny Thomas and Mikki Moore. Obviously they aren’t coming back.

Larry Hughes will either be waived or renounced immediately. One or the other. Sean May is not likely to be back. I heavily doubt that Ime Udoka will be signed to a contract. Either way, it doesn’t matter. The Kings can get him cheaply again if they, and he, chooses.

These are the players that the Kings could bring back next season: Joey Dorsey, Jon Brockman, and Dominic McGuire. For reasons that should be obvious, McGuire doesn’t fit a need. He was acquired for the cash that came with him. (You make those deals when you can. It can never hurt your bottom line.)

Obviously, a lot of people are seeing Jon Brockman being part of the Kings future. Quite frankly, I do not see him being a big part of this team’s future if the Kings acquire another big through the draft or Free Agency. In a down season, Brockman is fine. When you’re winning a lot of NBA games, his skillset becomes probably pretty unnecessary. Since he hasn’t really shown the ability to be a quality paint defender in the NBA, he’s pretty expendable. Joey Dorsey, by way of his inability to score, is expendable for the same reasons.

So, thus, I would expect that the Kings will most likely bring in a draft pick anywhere from 2.5-4.5 million (for estimation purposes I’ll go towards the high range for now).

The Kings most likely would have committed at this point, assuming the 4.5 million to the 1st pick, 37,546,420 in actual dollars. If you assume that the salary cap (as Nets Daily has) to be at 53.6 million for the next season, that’s almost 16 million in even cap room. Whether that’s the max for a Free Agent next season I do not know. However, mostly because I’m lazy, the max for a free agent this season (when another team signs that player), according to Coon’s FAQ, after 7 years in service, is 16,224,600. (Why 7 years? Because Wade, LeBron and Bosh all have 7 years in by this summer.) With the salary cap currently at 57.7 million, the Kings will certainly have enough room to sign a max Free Agent. And unlike a year ago, there isn’t the entire league jockeying to be players in this deal. Only 5 teams have weight to throw around now. (That’s why I think the Kings joined the fray when they did.)

Yeah. Pause. Think about that for a moment. If you clicked on the Nets Daily link you saw how many teams have serious salary cap room. The big one is the Knicks, but they have a very bare bones roster. Signing 2 Max Free Agents may be nearly impossible for the Knicks once you factor in that they will have to fill in a roster that makes the 2 max Superstars happy. The Nets also may have enough for 2 high quality FA’s (Not 2 Max Superstars though). If they were to get John Wall, that might make getting a LeBron James much easier despite the awful season. (My bet is that LeBron stays in Cleveland because of the years and money the Cavs can offer him.)

Miami also has money, but they have to deal with Dwyane Wade first. (Nets Daily calculation most likely takes into account Wade’s cap hold. In fact, seeing how much money Miami has committed to their roster I know that’s the case.) I suspect that may be as difficult for Miami given how little talent they have on their roster elsewhere.

The Wizards have cap room, but likely won’t attract a max Free Agent to play on their roster given their recent decision to blow it up and start anew. (This does make them potent players if they can put together quality young players and attract a FA somewhere down the road.)

The Bulls also have max Free Agent room to add 1 guy. I’m sure they will be going hard after Dwyane Wade or Joe Johnson. (Thankfully they won’t get in the way of what the Kings need.)

Then you have the Kings, and depending on what happens with management and various stars (let’s face it: this is really about Chris Bosh if you’re talking max Free-Agents).

The Clippers also have max room (or most likely will with the cap going down) but that may mean little for stars not wanting to play there. Who knows? It is LA.

Minnesota and Oklahoma City also have significant cap room, and might be more likely to make deals through trades and that type of thing rather than sign a max Free Agent since neither are likely to have that kind of room.

So what does this mean for the Kings? It means they are probably a dark horse to get a max player if that guy wants to commit to a young roster and a year or two down the road (depending on how that guy sees it–again the only guy I see this being possible is Chris Bosh).

If for nothing else, because of the cap space that the Kings will have, they will likely be able to get a quality player for little or nothing. Assuming that luxury tax is around 65 or 66 million next season, here are the teams that might end up being over that tax line for next season:

Boston (63.7 million in committed salary
Charlotte (59.8 million in committed salary–this is a huge stretch)
Cleveland (67.97 million in committed salary–this is unlikely to change unless LeBron opts out and leaves, and then that likely won’t happen)
Dallas will likely be over (they’re salary will fall somewhere between 70 & 85 million most likely), but not likely to be major sellers
Denver: (74.27 million–may sell a player the Kings want)
Indiana: (65.7 million committed in salary–Troy Murphy is one possibility here)
Lakers: (Somewhere between 75 & 90 million–they might be sellers for a good backup player whose cheap)
Hornets: (71.5 million committed in salary–they will absolutely over the luxury tax line–although I don’t see much here the Kings would really want)
Magic: (80.5 million in salary next season–the Magic could be willing to give up a player like Bass for nothing if the Kings wanted the remaining 3 years of his salary at 4 mil per)
Sixers: (66.1 million committed in salary so I think Philly is stuck here–nothing I personally greatly value in salaried players; this includes Dalembert)
Suns: (They could be near the tax or not depending on what happens with Amare Stoudemire and the rest of their roster; I would not be surprised if they blow it up over the summer and move Nash as well though–I’ve thought that’s what they would do all along)

So as you can see the trade market may not be the easiest place to get a player for nothing (although possible).

The Free Agent market is a possibility, but hardly anything remotely a guarantee. The Draft Pick may be more important for long term improvement than anything. (Which was always the case.)

Either way, I like the Kings have flexibility to make moves as they see fit rather than trying to beat a dead horse and make the Martin pairing work. (He clearly wanted out. That is undeniable. And understandable.)

So, we have 28 games left. Let’s see what we got, eh?


Responses

  1. [...] the original post here: Salary Cap Update (and what that could mean for the Kings) « Evil … Share and [...]

  2. I’ve been wondering where we stand after all is said and done, good stuff.

    The bottom line is that whether Joey Dorsey or Jon Brockman are with the team or not really doesn’t matter. I suspect that Brockman might be back next season just because he’s a friend of Spencer’s and a favorite of Westphal. After watching the Huston game at Memphis Dorsey appears to be a better Brockman.

    I’d love to see Bosh here but he is the longest of longshots. Most of the rumored acquiring teams especially Miami, the Knicks and Nets don’t have much to surround the superstars with which makes me think that in the end, none of them move. Chicago is an interesting destination but the only way they get one of the chosen is through a sign and trade and I don’t see Chicago moving either Noah or Rose. Deng? Nah.

    I’d imagine the King’s best option would be to upgrade with a less than superstar player in the $7-10 mil range and to play the facilitator role that Memphis, Okc and the Clips have with their cap room while waiting for the free agent class of 2011 which is almost af good as this year.

    The painful part of rebuilding is waiting for the payoff from internal development. I see next season as still being a rebuilding year and if we get a semi-star, and if Landry continues to develop along with the bulk of our young players and along with another high draft pick we could be looking at real mediocrity which would be a huge step up.

    I still think our mutual pick of about 23 wins is not going to be far off and if we are wrong it’s a good thing. I didn’t anticipate JT playing this badly but on other the other hand I didn’t see ‘Reke or Donté playing as well as they have.

    Glad to see you back in the saddle. Good stuff homez.

    • Couple things BJ. Chicago DOES have enough space to sign a single max free agent.

      Also, I think how well the Kings play down the stretch could determine whether a FA decides to sign here.

      Hope your hands are doing well. Hopefully all those words you typed in meant you’re feeling good today. Thanks as always for the support BJ.


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