Posted by: Kingsguru21 | June 10, 2010

Nocioni wants a trade does he? A Nocioni trading options piece (and other thoughts)

Here is a translation for what Nocioni said from a Spanish speaker over at StR, Edm7. The original article was linked to by Edg5 and a thanks to him. TZ even talked about this today. Having said that, here are my thoughts as they were.

Can the Kings get any tangible trades from Andres Nocioni at this point?

Probably not. He would be part of a package most likely, or a team taking on Noc’s salary in exchange for a bigger salary this season.

One such trade that I believe is possible (but hardly imminent until word of it happens) is a swap for Elton Brand and the 2nd pick (Philly’s pick) in the 2010 draft. But a lot depends on trading that pick, and it wouldn’t just be Noc involved in that type of deal. However, because Noc is amicable to a buyout to go back to Europe (which he is stating in the Ole article), this may make any team taking him back more enticed to trade for him.

Another possible trade on the horizon could be (as has been mentioned here several times and elsewhere on StR by several members there), Noc for Stojakovic and a 2011 1st round pick from the Hornets. It clears Noc’s salary off the books for 2011-12, and it nets the Kings the 1st round pick. (It also has the added benefit of getting the Kings over the minimum salary line, but that’s another issue and a minor one at best.)

These examples are just two of the trade possibilities out there. You could trade down for instance. But, to do that you’ll probably take an expiring contract that would be a similar amount to any buyout the Kings most likely agree to. Therefore, I see trading down and using the 5th pick to shed Noc’s contract a very small possibility. (Right now, picking a player with that 5th pick is the highest probability unless trading up to get that 2nd pick is possible and worth it from the Kings POV.) Or you can keep Noc beyond the draft and try other avenues over the summer.

What if the Kings just buyout Noc at this point?

Well, the Kings will consider a buyout if they can’t get a better option by trading Noc away. GP & Co will have to consider anything that saves the Kings money at this point. No reason in paying more money to a guy who doesn’t want to be in Sac, and the chances of taking on money using Noc’s contract becomes less feasible as summer drags on. If that was the case, the Kings can always use Beno Udrih or Francisco Garcia’s contracts as carrot’s to take back a big money deal if they are thinking about doing so in the 2011-12 season’s and beyond.

What would the mechanics of a buyout look like?

First, most of this is a negotiation between Noc/his agent and the Kings management. Given on how Drew Gooden’s buyout was negotiated, I expect a 50 cents on the dollar MINIMUM buyout from the Kings (or something like that) to waive Noc and let him move on. But there is also a bonus and it’s called setoff. Last year, in explaining this very thing about Mikki Moore, TZ already did so.

But there’s also something else too: The Kings can ALSO set-off Noc’s salary if he signs in Europe as well. Set-off is available in any setting where Noc is waived and is earning a professional contract ANYWHERE.

TZ had a point about how this would work monetarily (and because it’s explained so well I refer to it often when trying to explain set-off), and Larry Coon’s FAQ explains it here.

Aykis & I also had a conversation about how long the buyout would take, and according to Sham it would be 2 years (or how many years there is guaranteed money on the contract–which in Noc’s case is two but there is a team option that doesn’t have guaranteed money apparently). However Larry Coon says that the buyout depends on what the language in the contract says (which was something I nearly said myself last night having read that before–I’ve read that in his FAQ and in the past and not sure why I said that to Aykis–sometimes I’m just dumb okay?) about whether a buyout applies to the option year. If there is a clause that says yes it will, than any buyout will be 3 years. If not, it will be 2 years. (Be interesting to see what happens with that. Anyway, here is the direct quote from Coon’s twitter.)

There’s a clause in the contract that says what happens to unexercised options when the player is waived (and a buyout is a form ..of waiver). It depends on what that clause says. There are also things they can do upon mutual agreement — mutually amend the…contract to either eliminate the option or move the option window (if necessary) and the team can pick up the option before …waiving the player). So if they want to, they can work it either way. But if the player gets paid for the option year, the ...buyout applies to that year.

Pretty much what that means is that the contract will pre-determine whether the buyout will be spread over 3 years or not. Thanks to Aykis and his twitter account for that exchange as well. The real point, though, is that a buyout is more complicated because of these little details than it is to trade Noc and let some other team that has less than the Kings to lose and deal with the buyout details of Noc.

If the Kings buyout Noc, they can get more cap-room to sign FA’s right?

Not necessarily. The Kings already have max cap room as it is, and therefore waiving Noc and completing a buyout (even a good buyout like 50 cents on the dollar) isn’t going to necessarily open cap room for another high level free agent. The Kings have cap room, but not that much cap room. The Kings likely will have roughly a mid level amount of money to spend BEYOND a max Free Agent and that’s assuming that Jon Brockman/Ime Udoka don’t get resigned. (Which, at this point, I don’t deem totally unlikely.)

Here is something that’s important to remember: Setoff won’t matter in terms of signing FA’s because, at the end of the day, setoff won’t come until a new contract is signed by Noc for some other team elsewhere. It won’t affect the FA game at all most likely.

How does the Kings organization feel about this?

Funny, Jason Jones writes on the Bee blog and says the whole article is the samo-samo with regards to Noc. I don’t disagree. But what made this more interesting was that Noc seemed to think a potential trade may be coming down the pike. Which means what? Nothing. Here is Jones and Petrie’s reaction to this:

But there’s nothing new from the Kings’ perspective. They’ll do their best to accommodate Nocioni. If not, they expect he will be the professional he’s always been and show up to training camp ready to play.

“I think that’s (the Ole article) just a different version of what we’ve covered,” said Kings president Geoff Petrie. “We kind of know how everybody feels. When and if and how, we don’t know. There’s nothing new there.”

Jones basically said the translation is that the Kings won’t give away Nocioni for nothing. The question is: Is buying out Noc for 50 cents of the dollar (or more), and then reaping the benefits of setoff a bad deal?

What I know is that Geoff Petrie tends to hold tightly to a nickel in the hopes of stretching it into a dime. Sometimes it works, and sometimes not. Personally? I hope that he doesn’t let a buyout of Noc drag past training camp. That is way too long to settle something like this. I don’t mind Petrie pooh-poohing this on June 10th, but on August 10th? I mind some. Let it go or don’t.

So what do I think?

As Jones mentioned, Noc has done this before. I’m not even surprised at the timing. Little drama around the Kings has been had this off-season and Noc gave it a jolt on a slow day. Other than that, right now, I see this mattering little in the grand scheme.

I’ve seen mentioned it by a few StR’ers, that this might hurt the Kings in dealing with another team. Truthfull, I doubt this will make any difference in any negotiation of a trade that includes Noc. And, if anything, it may help for a team (like Philly especially in dumping Brand’s contract) that shedding Noc’s salary for half of the money would be more useful than it would be having to eat the contract over the next 2 season’s. It makes a deal, IMO, more palatable to that end than not as far as I can see it. (Or maybe that’s my Favors love blinding me. Hard to tell sometimes.)

Either way right now, I don’t expect anything to come of this lil’ interview Noc did until something does come of it. By that point, it will probably be pretty obvious as to what & why a trade of Noc happened.

Now I’m done. I think.

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