Posted by: Kingsguru21 | March 26, 2011

Odds and Ends

Just some odds & ends to chew on as I’m thinking about them (and thus felt like typing them).

* Sacramento has the 4th worst record in the NBA as I type this.

New Jersey (5.5 points), Minnesota (5.8 points), Toronto (6.4 points), Washington (8.3 points) and Cleveland (10.2 points) have worse margins of victory.

* The Kings have the 9th worst road record in the NBA (ahead of Golden State, LA Clippers, Detroit, Toronto, New Jersey, Cleveland, Minnesota and Washington) and the worst record at home (tied with Cleveland for the worst record in the NBA).

* The margin of victory for the Kings at home is a negative -3.6 points and on the road is -7.2 points. However, let’s look at this a bit deeper.

At home:

Victories of 1-5 points: (2)
Victories of 5-10 points: (4)
Victories of 10-20 points: (1)
Victories of 20+ points: (2)

Losses of 1-5 points: (9)
Losses of 5-10 points: (12)
Losses of 10-20 points: (3)
Losses of 20+ points: (3)

On Road:

Victories of 1-5 points: (2)
Victories of 5-10 points: (3)
Victories of 10-20 points: (4)
Victories of 20+ points: (1)

Losses of 1-5 points: (4)
Losses of 5-10 points: (6)
Losses of 10-20 points: (8)
Losses of 20+ points: (6)

In this group there were really about 20 non-competitive games out of the 71 games the Kings have played up to this point.

You have 21 competitive losses at home but 10 on the road. That’s a huge disparity. Yet, at the same time, the Kings have won more on the road.

Just as an exercise in fun (and not to distort reality as I’m not interested in that distortion), I wanna see what each differential at home and on the road looks like without those non-competitive games.

Adjusted (All losses by 10+ points taken out) Pts Scored at home for 30 games remaining: 2966

Adjusted (All losses by 10+ points taken out) Pts Scored on Road for 21 games: 2119

Adjusted (All losses by 10+ points taken out) Pts Allowed at home for 30 games remaining: 2993

Adjusted (All losses by 10+ points taken out) Pts Allowed on road for 21 games remaining: 2068

Adjusted Differential at home: 97.8 Pts Scored 99.8 Pts Allowed

Adjusted Differential on road: 100.9 Pts Scored 98.5 Pts Allowed

Adjusted Differential: Negative 2 at Home and Positive 2.4 points on the road.

After toying with how many games to pull (I took the worst 6 at home and on the road), the worst blowouts for the Kings on the road were: @ Chicago (by 40), home to Philadelphia by 22, on the road at Memphis by 28, on the road to Miami by 20 (also at home by 21), by 30 at Oklahoma City right before the AS break, at 23 to the Lakers in LA (in November) and what not. If I pick the 6 worst losses on the road (in Chicago by 40 points, in Oklahoma City by 30 points, in Memphis by 28 points, at Boston by 24 points, at Lakers by 23 points, at Miami by 20 points) I can figure out the difference in the 29 other road games as opposed to the 30 home games.

The amount of points allowed is 3030. The amount of points scored is 2952. That differential for the 29 road games is: 104.5 pts allowed and 101.8 pts scored. That is a differential of -2.7 points.

-2.7 points on the road and -2 points at home? Seem’s to me a pretty competitive team on both the road and at home. Especially when there is only a game difference that comprised the total amount of points.

It gets even worse if you wanted to factor the games that Tyreke Evans played in (hurt or no) and didn’t play. It becomes positive for the Kings much closer (or positive) in the 47 contests that Tyreke has played in. In case you’re wondering, that record is 13-34 which is a slight improvement over the current winning percentage total. What I find really revealing is how many close games the Kings have played in with Tyreke vs not Tyreke. Many of the worse outings of the year for the Kings have been without Tyreke and recently to boot.

If you’re questioning Tyreke’s status as the best player on the Kings, I really wonder about your observational skills with regards to this team.

* This is the Kings remaining schedule (all time is in Pacific Daylight Savings Time):

Tomorrow: @Philadelphia 9am (not a typo)
Tuesday March 29th: Phoenix 7pm
Wednesday March 30th: @ Denver 6pm
Friday April 1st: Denver 7pm
Sunday April 3rd: Utah 3pm (not a typo)
Tuesday April 5th: @ Houston 530pm
Wednesday April 6th: @ San Antonio 530pm
Friday April 8th: @ Memphis 5pm
Sunday April 10: @ Golden State 6pm
Monday April 11: Oklahoma City 7pm
Wednesday April 13: LA Lakers 7pm

There are a lot of people who are excited that the Kings have won 2 games back to back, but the truth is that the Kings have had a nasty schedule from January on. They’ve also played their best ball from January on too. Even though there is a lot of tough games in there, all games are tough in the NBA. So, put differently, while those teams have better reputations and W/L records, the fact is that the Kings could easily win 3 or 4 of those games because there isn’t much to play for. That includes the last 2 potential games at Arco against OKC and the Lakers as both teams seedings in the playoffs could easily be set. OKC is currently solidly in the 4th seed and probably will end up the season there. It very well could be determined by the time the Kings play the Thunder for the 4th and final time. It’s equally worth noting that while the Kings are on a back to back, so is OKC after playing at the Lakers the night before.

At any rate, I expect that the Kings can steal a few games towards the end of the season, and a few between here & there. I would not be surprised to see a 6-5 record as the Kings continue towards respectability as a NBA team again.

So that’s it.

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