DeMarcus Cousins vs Derrick Favors

That’s the debate isn’t it? Who to take if the Kings can’t get John Wall or Evan Turner? (Because the Kings are in DESPERATE need of another ball handling G who can’t shoot 3’s.)

The first question that usually gives rise to the BPA argument: The Kings need the Best Player because they aren’t a very good team.

Now, this is completely true. No doubt they aren’t all that good yet. But they also remodeled their team with young players AND turned over a roster with no major veterans on it that weren’t around in the 2008-09 season. It takes time to generate chemistry and figure out how to run a NBA system effectively. As such, I think internal improvement can help the Kings a lot more than some are figuring at this point. Do you want to rely on it completely? No. On the other hand, why bring in young players, give the reigns to one (and spend considerable time & energy developing another young player) if you don’t believe in them long term? Especially if you’re totally focused on whom the best player is?

On the other hand the question is how much does John Wall or Evan Turner bring to the table with Tyreke Evans already on the team. I have to question how much Wall really brings (other than the dreams of “what if” to the table) to this Kings roster with so many deficiencies on the front line. This is just as true of Turner. Rather going into detail again, and again, on this point, I’d rather stop here. I’ve made it clear why I disagree with this line of thinking. I only bring it up to highlight that it’s one area that the Kings have addressed internally, and I want to show how easy it is to draft big men.

But something I didn’t address in the last piece was how “easy” it is to trade for big men.

During this last decade here are the following big men (and the pieces they netted in return) who were traded (if I missed a player or two please let me know in the comments and I’ll update them):

Pau Gasol to the Lakers in 2008. Pieces in return to Memphis: 2 1st round picks (1 in the upcoming 2010 draft and ended up with Darrell Arthur from the 2008 draft), Kwame Brown, Javaris Crittenton, Aaron McKie and the rights to Marc Gasol.

What did Memphis get? Mostly Marc Gasol and little else. Also a lot of cap room by dumping Gasol’s long term contract. Depending on how this 2010 pick turns out (and it could turn out well–anything’s possible), I would say right now Memphis got a reasonable return. Certainly much better than other teams.

Kevin Garnett to the Celtics in 2007: Al Jefferson, Ryan Gomes, Sebastian Telfair, 2 1st round picks (1 in 2009 which became Wayne Ellington and another in 2011) and some cash came back to Minnesota.

Shaquille O’Neal has been traded several times this past decade. From the Cavaliers and Suns swap (during the 2009 draft), he netted Ben Wallace and Sasha Pavlovic (which only netted the Suns a minor salary dump). From Miami (in 2008), he netted the Heat Shawn Marion and Marcus Banks. From the Lakers (in 2004), he netted them Brian Grant, Lamar Odom and Caron Butler.

Kwame Brown ended up being traded for Caron Butler in 2005.

Ben Wallace ended up being part of the package in the Grant Hill S&T between Detroit and Orlando in 2000.

Tyson Chandler ended up being traded from the Bulls to the Hornets for PJ Brown and JR Smith. (The Bulls did end up trading Smith to the Nuggets the same summer for a 2nd round pick.) Chandler ended up being swapped for Emeka Okafor last summer.

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I could look for more minor players, but my point is simple: Most of these franchise big men do not necessarily get traded for franchise/high impact players. (Which is an All-Star level player. Or better) None of those players were considered a major franchise player, other than Shaquille O’Neal in 2004, and even then that was dubious. (UPDATE: I’m not saying that KG, Shaq, or even Pau (although less so) weren’t franchise level big’s.)

So that’s one issue I have with trading for a big men if the Kings draft BPA in the upcoming draft. It’s a good thing that there are some quality big’s in this draft.

2 that are of course high quality is DeMarcus Cousins and Derrick Favors. (I’ll break them down in a bit.) Cole Aldrich, Ed Davis, Greg Monroe, Epke Udoh, Patrick Patterson, Donatas Motiejunas, Daniel Orton, Hassan Whiteside, Larry Sanders, Solomon Alabi, Gani Lawal, and Miroslav Raduljica are all among DX’s top 33. All are considered to be PF/C’s by DX in their mock draft. By my count, that is 14 big’s that could alter a franchise predominantly. Some will flame out, some willl improve over time and some will be the studs.

The studs, by my estimation, are Cousins and Favors.

I don’t like comparisons. I don’t want people to get hyped up about these comparisons. I don’t want you running with this 5 years from now and saying OH MY GOSH YOU SAID THIS GUY WOULD BE LIKE SO & SO. I’m just saying that each guy reminds me of the following players.

Cousins does remind me of a young Shaquille O’Neal in a lot of ways. Favors reminds me of a young Dwight Howard. Which would you rather have?

A couple of rumors I’d like to dispel. I think Cousins and Favors both can play in an up-tempo system. I think Favors is a bit better suited for it as he’s a bit better athlete than Cousins (the difference is negligible), and more willing perhaps. But Cousins played in an up-tempo system at Kentucky. I don’t think you can discount that. In the same way that you couldn’t discount the fact that Tyreke Evans showed he could play in an up-tempo system at Memphis. Take a look at Cousins & Favors DX profiles before we continue.

Some HS action of Favors dunking:

When you look at this, don’t think of it so much as how much he dunks, but notice how easily he gets up. He dunks over one guy where he just sails past him like he isn’t there. He isn’t even bothered by this cat. (And it’s not like the guy he dunked on wasn’t there with him. He totally was.) There is athleticism, and there is explosive athleticism. Favors is explosive around the basket. Carl Landry like explosive only less polished post moves and less patience around the basket. Only a better leaper and a far better body than Landry. I guarantee you that if Favors had Landry’s skill right now, he’d be the hands down #1 pick. But that’s not how this deal works.

Now DeMarcus Cousins isn’t as athletic as Favors jumping off 2 feet and not running. That’s where Favors has a real physical advantage over Cousins. (Maybe wingspan too. We’ll see about that though.) Cousins has major league size, a real wingspan, and can jump for someone roughly the size of a small mack truck. Still, Cousins is a major league load and that can’t be discounted.

Here’s some Favors highlights playing with GA Tech in a bad blowout:

(Fast forward to the 2:25 mark if you want to see most of the Favors stuff.) If you watch the whole clip, and it’s hard to tell where Favors is in relation to Lawal, most of the time Favors is in the weakside and Lawal is getting the ball. Most of the G’s on Ga Tech are shot happy and choose to pull up for their own shot. Not the best way for a young power player to ply his craft.

This is really a good all around footage on Bledsoe, Wall, Cousins and Patterson. It shows how Patterson plays, where he plays in relation to Cousins, and why Cousins is such a valuable post presence.

This is a good video that shows where Favors has some defensive presence and instincts. (It also helps that Lawal & Favors are so interchangeable.)

Kentucky plays at a faster pace than Georgia Tech. That means better numbers and inflated stats for the UK players right?

According to Ken Pom’s stat sheet, this isn’t the case. Kentucky played at the 65th fastest pace, and Georgia Tech at the 68th fastest pace. Kentucky, though, had the 15th most efficient offense in the country where Georgia Tech had the 62nd most efficient offense. Defensively Georgia Tech was 12th in defensive efficiency, and Kentucky was 6th in defensive efficiency.

Shooting wise (eFG%), Kentucky was 32nd in the Country this past season. Georgia Tech was 96th. TOV% had Kentucky 218th in the country, and GA Tech was even worse at 309th in the entire country. OREB% had Kentucky at 5th, and Georgia Tech at 14th in the country. I’ll ignore the FTA/FGA as I don’t think it matters a ton at the college level.

So is it possible to explain the big difference in rebounding between Cousins and Favors?

Perhaps there is a way. Using Ken Pom’s site to analyze the best rebounders in each conference, let’s note some things about the ACC & SEC. It seems to me that looking at the SEC, and looking at the ACC, and looking at OREB% leaders, as well as DREB% leaders, that the ACC is a superior rebounding conference. There are 11 guys in the ACC with a 20% Dreb% (Favors is 11th in the conference for what it’s worth) where there are just 6 guys in the SEC (DeMarcus Cousins is heavily leading in both OREB% & DREB%) who are rebounding at the same clip.

Do I think Cousins can board? Absolutely. But, at the same time he plays with a teammate on the frontline who grabs a paltry 13.5 DREB% in Patrick Patterson. Those boards were all Cousins where Favors had a quality board mate against better boarding competition. Those numbers have to be skewed somewhat towards Cousins just based on the law of averages. Is Favors perfect? Absolutely not, and I’m not arguing that he was awesome in every way this season. I AM arguing that Cousins numbers look less impressive with few quality boardmen. (The one NBA caliber player who grabbed a significant amount of boards is Jarvis Varnado. Maybe Michael Washington is a 2nd rounder. But where Varnado is a late 1st rounder/early 2nd rounder, Washington is a fringe 2nd rounder at best.)

Who is the more efficient offensive player?

Some will tell you this is DeMarcus Cousins. But Ken Pom’s stat sheet says that Favors is one of the more efficient players in the country. In eFG%, Favors is 28th in the entire country. In TS%, Favors is 61st. Cousins is not even in the top 400 in either category. Of Cousins teammates, Patterson is 54th in TS% for the country, Wall is 396th, and Bledsoe is 365th. Patterson ranks 32nd in eFG%, and Bledsoe 296th.

By comparison only Gani Lawal, of Favors teammates, is even in that category, and even then he is 365th in the entire country in terms of eFG%.

Tyreke Evans is a high usage player. Would Cousins demand possessions at the same rate?

Evans last year used 33% of the total Memphis possessions a game. (Curry used 38% of Davidson’s possessions last year by comparison. And, like Evans, Curry had to.) Cousins this season at Kentucky used 28% of the total possessions a game. Given that Cousins is a player who plays near the basket, and Evans is a player who needs the ball in his hands and plays at the rim often, I do not see this being an ideal match. Can Evans & Cousins work it out? Sure they can. The question is will Cousins be willing to take less than 20 shots a night if that’s what best? I don’t know. This is where the red flags of Cousins really concern me. It’s not so much that Cousins takes anti-behavorial meds that bothers me at this point. It’s the fact that Cousins simply gets frustrated when a foul goes against him, or when he doesn’t get the ball when he think he should, or anything else like that. Cousins played with 2 guys who saw the usefulness to dump the ball into him all year in Bledsoe and Wall. At the NBA level, NBA G’s are not so nice. This is one area that I will be heavily concerned with if the Kings select Cousins.

Because of the efficiency that Favors has shown, not to mention being able to set screens and be active moving without the ball, I think Favors will be able to find himself points in the more open environment. Also, because I think Favors is young the Kings can afford to be patient with his development. Especially since winning Rookie of the Year is not likely a needed component next year for any player the Kings bring in. (It’s not needed this year to be truthful.)

Defensively, who is better?

This will be a matter of opinion, I have a feeling. I think Favors is the more versatile, committed and willing defender. I think Cousins size keeps him from being truly exploited at the college level and thus his defense is probably not what it will need to be to be truly effective at the NBA level. In my opinion, Cousins is not as active defensively as one might want at the next level. Favors, though, is generally active on the defensive end.

Another point is that where Favors and Cousins have a similar level of blocks, I think that where Favors gets his is from his activity level. Cousins gets his mainly from his size. Is that Cousins fault that he is 7 foot and long? No. But I question his activity level and desire at the next level. While Red Flag’s aren’t the only thing out there when dealing with a player, it is one thing that I do find very disconcerting about Cousins in general.

What can we expect from Cousins or Favors to translate to the next level?

Well, rebounding is one thing we can expect each to do either well, very well, or supremely well at the next level. Both are above average rebounders now. Additionally, TS% is one indicator of efficiency, and efficiency tends to carry over from the next level. Stephen Curry was an efficient player while playing with other weapons at Davidson, and Evans wasn’t as efficient as Curry was a year ago in his least efficient of 3 seasons at the NCAA level.

The thing is, though, that TS% tends to benefit players who shoot 3’s and hit FT’s at high rates. That is definitely Curry, and not Evans. The other way a TS% tends to benefit a player is if they take a lot of shots from 2, and none from 3. Plus, if there are FT’s taken at a high enough rate that tends to make a player better in the TS% department.

I would say that even though I wouldn’t knock a player down a peg or two for not being wholly efficient, especially with measures that heavily favor players who are quality outside shooters (which is something that is definitely true of TS%), or I wouldn’t say that I would want based solely on one measure or another.

Something to chew on: I took the 3pt FGA for both guys out. For Favors it only raised his percentage slightly a couple points despite the 1 3pt FGA Favors took all season. But Cousins took 6 3pt FGA, and missed 5 of the 6 3pt FGA he had. This raised Cousins’ TS% nearly 8 points.

This suggests to me that Favors is not efficient only because he puts up shots near the basket, but because he knows that’s where he’s best at offensively too. Part of the reason a player is inefficient is because of their shot selection. That’s another area that greatly concerns me about Cousins moving forward.

Historically, doesn’t being high on eFG% or TS% mean much in terms of prospects?

Going back to 2006 (I’ll throw out 2005 and 2004 because of HS players), here are the following top 10 picks who also were in the top 100 in college in either TS% or eFG% at one point in their careers. (in the case of a foreign player like Bargnani, I’ll use their last year of their EuroLeague career). Note: I’m listing players the year they made the top 100 in either TS% or eFG%; not the years they are drafted. In the case of Bargnani/Euro players I’m just using the 60% designator.

2006 TS%: Andrea Bargnani, Shelden Williams, Joakim Noah, Al Horford

2006 eFG%: Andrea Bargnani, Joakim Noah, Shelden Williams, Al Horford

2007 TS%: Al Horford,Joakim Noah and Stephen Curry

2007 eFG%: Al Horford and Joakim Noah

2008 TS%: Kevin Love, Hasheem Thabeet, Stephen Curry, Jordan Hill, andJames Harden

2008 eFG%: Jordan Hill, Stephen Curry, and Hasheem Thabeet

2009 TS%: Noone in the top 10 picks (including Curry whose efficiency dropped his Junior season) actually had a top 100 TS% in 2009.

2009 eFG%: Blake Griffin and Hasheem Thabeet

Now, hopefully I’ve made my point. Some of these guys are efficient offensive players. Others are efficient simply because they touch the ball a lot less than their other NBA teammates. I pretty much expect that Favors will fall somewhere in between Blake Griffin (the best offensive player of the group) and Hasheem Thabeet or Shelden Williams (by far the worst offensive players of the group). The question is which end will Favors fall in.

Are you really taking the guy who barely produced over the guy with big numbers?

Yes. I like Favors attitude. I think he can make an impact rebounding the ball, defensively, shot blocking, and on post defense or on-off ball defense. These are all things that would make the Kings better.

Besides, Favors needs work on post moves, footwork, and learning how to use all his tools appropriately. There are worse places than plying your craft on a NBA team and learning how to play the game. I’m not sold college coaches develop players much for the NBA. (It’s one reason I don’t mind so many players leaving early.) Favors weaknesses are basically things that can become strengths as time goes on. Dwight Howard didn’t have a post game when he came into the NBA. He had athleticism, the body, the willingness to play defense, and generally play without the ball. I think he did okay his first couple years. And while I’m not saying that I see Favors being Dwight Howard Jr, I don’t see it being out of the total realm of possibility. I also think Tyreke Evans and Favors personalities will mesh too. You take all the other kids, and what do you got? Bibbity bobbity boo! (Okay, I always wanted to say that.)

As far as Cousins, you get a high usage, high maintenance player who, quite honestly, doesn’t create a great need for what he does. Gaudy stats as he possesses, I don’t think the weight of the conference has really been factored in much. With all due respect to those who think Favors under-achieved, it’s hard to imagine how a kid with his upside, his skills defensively, and his ability to impact the game didn’t do as much as he could. Does Favors have issues and moments where he does not succeed? Sure. People will point to the game vs OSU where Favors didn’t grab a single D-Board all game and fouled out. Those same people will be managing to omit Cousins last game, too. But what they’ll notice is the numbers. What will be forgotten that GA Tech was facing a superior opponent in OSU, and Kentucky was facing a beat up opponent in WVU.

Cole Aldrich had a similar rebound rate to Cousins, but I don’t see a lot of people clamoring to get him. If the Kings got 5th or 6th (absolute worst case scenario), you’re talking about Cole Aldrich vs Al-Farouq Aminu. And quite honestly I can live with that. Aldrich is a high quality player, and so is Aminu. Both have special attributes that make this team better. Regardless of faults that every young player tends to have. I don’t think I’m on the Epke Udoh bandwagon anymore.

Are you sure? You can take it back.

Nope. Not taking it back. For me Favors age, attitude, efficiency, ability on defense, ability to board at a high rate, block some shots, and the ability to play 2 positions trump what Cousins brings. Which is, of course, post offense and defense, rebounding, some blocked shots, and a mis match on the interior. I like Cousins game in many ways, but what surprised me when I looked deeper is that I don’t feel like there is a leap of faith being taken on Favors. To me, everything suggests that the numbers are saying that each player has their own strengths/weaknesses at this point, and their talent is roughly equal. If that’s the case, I’ll take Favors every time because he fits a greater need and much of his upside offensively could be reached with hard work and the right situation. Do I think that could be in Sacramento? Yes I do.

Am I crazy? Yes, I am. Until next time then.