Posted by: Kingsguru21 | April 24, 2010

DeMarcus Cousins vs Derrick Favors

That’s the debate isn’t it? Who to take if the Kings can’t get John Wall or Evan Turner? (Because the Kings are in DESPERATE need of another ball handling G who can’t shoot 3’s.)

The first question that usually gives rise to the BPA argument: The Kings need the Best Player because they aren’t a very good team.

Now, this is completely true. No doubt they aren’t all that good yet. But they also remodeled their team with young players AND turned over a roster with no major veterans on it that weren’t around in the 2008-09 season. It takes time to generate chemistry and figure out how to run a NBA system effectively. As such, I think internal improvement can help the Kings a lot more than some are figuring at this point. Do you want to rely on it completely? No. On the other hand, why bring in young players, give the reigns to one (and spend considerable time & energy developing another young player) if you don’t believe in them long term? Especially if you’re totally focused on whom the best player is?

On the other hand the question is how much does John Wall or Evan Turner bring to the table with Tyreke Evans already on the team. I have to question how much Wall really brings (other than the dreams of “what if” to the table) to this Kings roster with so many deficiencies on the front line. This is just as true of Turner. Rather going into detail again, and again, on this point, I’d rather stop here. I’ve made it clear why I disagree with this line of thinking. I only bring it up to highlight that it’s one area that the Kings have addressed internally, and I want to show how easy it is to draft big men.

But something I didn’t address in the last piece was how “easy” it is to trade for big men.

During this last decade here are the following big men (and the pieces they netted in return) who were traded (if I missed a player or two please let me know in the comments and I’ll update them):

Pau Gasol to the Lakers in 2008. Pieces in return to Memphis: 2 1st round picks (1 in the upcoming 2010 draft and ended up with Darrell Arthur from the 2008 draft), Kwame Brown, Javaris Crittenton, Aaron McKie and the rights to Marc Gasol.

What did Memphis get? Mostly Marc Gasol and little else. Also a lot of cap room by dumping Gasol’s long term contract. Depending on how this 2010 pick turns out (and it could turn out well–anything’s possible), I would say right now Memphis got a reasonable return. Certainly much better than other teams.

Kevin Garnett to the Celtics in 2007: Al Jefferson, Ryan Gomes, Sebastian Telfair, 2 1st round picks (1 in 2009 which became Wayne Ellington and another in 2011) and some cash came back to Minnesota.

Shaquille O’Neal has been traded several times this past decade. From the Cavaliers and Suns swap (during the 2009 draft), he netted Ben Wallace and Sasha Pavlovic (which only netted the Suns a minor salary dump). From Miami (in 2008), he netted the Heat Shawn Marion and Marcus Banks. From the Lakers (in 2004), he netted them Brian Grant, Lamar Odom and Caron Butler.

Kwame Brown ended up being traded for Caron Butler in 2005.

Ben Wallace ended up being part of the package in the Grant Hill S&T between Detroit and Orlando in 2000.

Tyson Chandler ended up being traded from the Bulls to the Hornets for PJ Brown and JR Smith. (The Bulls did end up trading Smith to the Nuggets the same summer for a 2nd round pick.) Chandler ended up being swapped for Emeka Okafor last summer.

******

I could look for more minor players, but my point is simple: Most of these franchise big men do not necessarily get traded for franchise/high impact players. (Which is an All-Star level player. Or better) None of those players were considered a major franchise player, other than Shaquille O’Neal in 2004, and even then that was dubious. (UPDATE: I’m not saying that KG, Shaq, or even Pau (although less so) weren’t franchise level big’s.)

So that’s one issue I have with trading for a big men if the Kings draft BPA in the upcoming draft. It’s a good thing that there are some quality big’s in this draft.

2 that are of course high quality is DeMarcus Cousins and Derrick Favors. (I’ll break them down in a bit.) Cole Aldrich, Ed Davis, Greg Monroe, Epke Udoh, Patrick Patterson, Donatas Motiejunas, Daniel Orton, Hassan Whiteside, Larry Sanders, Solomon Alabi, Gani Lawal, and Miroslav Raduljica are all among DX’s top 33. All are considered to be PF/C’s by DX in their mock draft. By my count, that is 14 big’s that could alter a franchise predominantly. Some will flame out, some willl improve over time and some will be the studs.

The studs, by my estimation, are Cousins and Favors.

I don’t like comparisons. I don’t want people to get hyped up about these comparisons. I don’t want you running with this 5 years from now and saying OH MY GOSH YOU SAID THIS GUY WOULD BE LIKE SO & SO. I’m just saying that each guy reminds me of the following players.

Cousins does remind me of a young Shaquille O’Neal in a lot of ways. Favors reminds me of a young Dwight Howard. Which would you rather have?

A couple of rumors I’d like to dispel. I think Cousins and Favors both can play in an up-tempo system. I think Favors is a bit better suited for it as he’s a bit better athlete than Cousins (the difference is negligible), and more willing perhaps. But Cousins played in an up-tempo system at Kentucky. I don’t think you can discount that. In the same way that you couldn’t discount the fact that Tyreke Evans showed he could play in an up-tempo system at Memphis. Take a look at Cousins & Favors DX profiles before we continue.

Some HS action of Favors dunking:

When you look at this, don’t think of it so much as how much he dunks, but notice how easily he gets up. He dunks over one guy where he just sails past him like he isn’t there. He isn’t even bothered by this cat. (And it’s not like the guy he dunked on wasn’t there with him. He totally was.) There is athleticism, and there is explosive athleticism. Favors is explosive around the basket. Carl Landry like explosive only less polished post moves and less patience around the basket. Only a better leaper and a far better body than Landry. I guarantee you that if Favors had Landry’s skill right now, he’d be the hands down #1 pick. But that’s not how this deal works.

Now DeMarcus Cousins isn’t as athletic as Favors jumping off 2 feet and not running. That’s where Favors has a real physical advantage over Cousins. (Maybe wingspan too. We’ll see about that though.) Cousins has major league size, a real wingspan, and can jump for someone roughly the size of a small mack truck. Still, Cousins is a major league load and that can’t be discounted.

Here’s some Favors highlights playing with GA Tech in a bad blowout:

(Fast forward to the 2:25 mark if you want to see most of the Favors stuff.) If you watch the whole clip, and it’s hard to tell where Favors is in relation to Lawal, most of the time Favors is in the weakside and Lawal is getting the ball. Most of the G’s on Ga Tech are shot happy and choose to pull up for their own shot. Not the best way for a young power player to ply his craft.

This is really a good all around footage on Bledsoe, Wall, Cousins and Patterson. It shows how Patterson plays, where he plays in relation to Cousins, and why Cousins is such a valuable post presence.

This is a good video that shows where Favors has some defensive presence and instincts. (It also helps that Lawal & Favors are so interchangeable.)

Kentucky plays at a faster pace than Georgia Tech. That means better numbers and inflated stats for the UK players right?

According to Ken Pom’s stat sheet, this isn’t the case. Kentucky played at the 65th fastest pace, and Georgia Tech at the 68th fastest pace. Kentucky, though, had the 15th most efficient offense in the country where Georgia Tech had the 62nd most efficient offense. Defensively Georgia Tech was 12th in defensive efficiency, and Kentucky was 6th in defensive efficiency.

Shooting wise (eFG%), Kentucky was 32nd in the Country this past season. Georgia Tech was 96th. TOV% had Kentucky 218th in the country, and GA Tech was even worse at 309th in the entire country. OREB% had Kentucky at 5th, and Georgia Tech at 14th in the country. I’ll ignore the FTA/FGA as I don’t think it matters a ton at the college level.

So is it possible to explain the big difference in rebounding between Cousins and Favors?

Perhaps there is a way. Using Ken Pom’s site to analyze the best rebounders in each conference, let’s note some things about the ACC & SEC. It seems to me that looking at the SEC, and looking at the ACC, and looking at OREB% leaders, as well as DREB% leaders, that the ACC is a superior rebounding conference. There are 11 guys in the ACC with a 20% Dreb% (Favors is 11th in the conference for what it’s worth) where there are just 6 guys in the SEC (DeMarcus Cousins is heavily leading in both OREB% & DREB%) who are rebounding at the same clip.

Do I think Cousins can board? Absolutely. But, at the same time he plays with a teammate on the frontline who grabs a paltry 13.5 DREB% in Patrick Patterson. Those boards were all Cousins where Favors had a quality board mate against better boarding competition. Those numbers have to be skewed somewhat towards Cousins just based on the law of averages. Is Favors perfect? Absolutely not, and I’m not arguing that he was awesome in every way this season. I AM arguing that Cousins numbers look less impressive with few quality boardmen. (The one NBA caliber player who grabbed a significant amount of boards is Jarvis Varnado. Maybe Michael Washington is a 2nd rounder. But where Varnado is a late 1st rounder/early 2nd rounder, Washington is a fringe 2nd rounder at best.)

Who is the more efficient offensive player?

Some will tell you this is DeMarcus Cousins. But Ken Pom’s stat sheet says that Favors is one of the more efficient players in the country. In eFG%, Favors is 28th in the entire country. In TS%, Favors is 61st. Cousins is not even in the top 400 in either category. Of Cousins teammates, Patterson is 54th in TS% for the country, Wall is 396th, and Bledsoe is 365th. Patterson ranks 32nd in eFG%, and Bledsoe 296th.

By comparison only Gani Lawal, of Favors teammates, is even in that category, and even then he is 365th in the entire country in terms of eFG%.

Tyreke Evans is a high usage player. Would Cousins demand possessions at the same rate?

Evans last year used 33% of the total Memphis possessions a game. (Curry used 38% of Davidson’s possessions last year by comparison. And, like Evans, Curry had to.) Cousins this season at Kentucky used 28% of the total possessions a game. Given that Cousins is a player who plays near the basket, and Evans is a player who needs the ball in his hands and plays at the rim often, I do not see this being an ideal match. Can Evans & Cousins work it out? Sure they can. The question is will Cousins be willing to take less than 20 shots a night if that’s what best? I don’t know. This is where the red flags of Cousins really concern me. It’s not so much that Cousins takes anti-behavorial meds that bothers me at this point. It’s the fact that Cousins simply gets frustrated when a foul goes against him, or when he doesn’t get the ball when he think he should, or anything else like that. Cousins played with 2 guys who saw the usefulness to dump the ball into him all year in Bledsoe and Wall. At the NBA level, NBA G’s are not so nice. This is one area that I will be heavily concerned with if the Kings select Cousins.

Because of the efficiency that Favors has shown, not to mention being able to set screens and be active moving without the ball, I think Favors will be able to find himself points in the more open environment. Also, because I think Favors is young the Kings can afford to be patient with his development. Especially since winning Rookie of the Year is not likely a needed component next year for any player the Kings bring in. (It’s not needed this year to be truthful.)

Defensively, who is better?

This will be a matter of opinion, I have a feeling. I think Favors is the more versatile, committed and willing defender. I think Cousins size keeps him from being truly exploited at the college level and thus his defense is probably not what it will need to be to be truly effective at the NBA level. In my opinion, Cousins is not as active defensively as one might want at the next level. Favors, though, is generally active on the defensive end.

Another point is that where Favors and Cousins have a similar level of blocks, I think that where Favors gets his is from his activity level. Cousins gets his mainly from his size. Is that Cousins fault that he is 7 foot and long? No. But I question his activity level and desire at the next level. While Red Flag’s aren’t the only thing out there when dealing with a player, it is one thing that I do find very disconcerting about Cousins in general.

What can we expect from Cousins or Favors to translate to the next level?

Well, rebounding is one thing we can expect each to do either well, very well, or supremely well at the next level. Both are above average rebounders now. Additionally, TS% is one indicator of efficiency, and efficiency tends to carry over from the next level. Stephen Curry was an efficient player while playing with other weapons at Davidson, and Evans wasn’t as efficient as Curry was a year ago in his least efficient of 3 seasons at the NCAA level.

The thing is, though, that TS% tends to benefit players who shoot 3’s and hit FT’s at high rates. That is definitely Curry, and not Evans. The other way a TS% tends to benefit a player is if they take a lot of shots from 2, and none from 3. Plus, if there are FT’s taken at a high enough rate that tends to make a player better in the TS% department.

I would say that even though I wouldn’t knock a player down a peg or two for not being wholly efficient, especially with measures that heavily favor players who are quality outside shooters (which is something that is definitely true of TS%), or I wouldn’t say that I would want based solely on one measure or another.

Something to chew on: I took the 3pt FGA for both guys out. For Favors it only raised his percentage slightly a couple points despite the 1 3pt FGA Favors took all season. But Cousins took 6 3pt FGA, and missed 5 of the 6 3pt FGA he had. This raised Cousins’ TS% nearly 8 points.

This suggests to me that Favors is not efficient only because he puts up shots near the basket, but because he knows that’s where he’s best at offensively too. Part of the reason a player is inefficient is because of their shot selection. That’s another area that greatly concerns me about Cousins moving forward.

Historically, doesn’t being high on eFG% or TS% mean much in terms of prospects?

Going back to 2006 (I’ll throw out 2005 and 2004 because of HS players), here are the following top 10 picks who also were in the top 100 in college in either TS% or eFG% at one point in their careers. (in the case of a foreign player like Bargnani, I’ll use their last year of their EuroLeague career). Note: I’m listing players the year they made the top 100 in either TS% or eFG%; not the years they are drafted. In the case of Bargnani/Euro players I’m just using the 60% designator.

2006 TS%: Andrea Bargnani, Shelden Williams, Joakim Noah, Al Horford

2006 eFG%: Andrea Bargnani, Joakim Noah, Shelden Williams, Al Horford

2007 TS%: Al Horford,Joakim Noah and Stephen Curry

2007 eFG%: Al Horford and Joakim Noah

2008 TS%: Kevin Love, Hasheem Thabeet, Stephen Curry, Jordan Hill, andJames Harden

2008 eFG%: Jordan Hill, Stephen Curry, and Hasheem Thabeet

2009 TS%: Noone in the top 10 picks (including Curry whose efficiency dropped his Junior season) actually had a top 100 TS% in 2009.

2009 eFG%: Blake Griffin and Hasheem Thabeet

Now, hopefully I’ve made my point. Some of these guys are efficient offensive players. Others are efficient simply because they touch the ball a lot less than their other NBA teammates. I pretty much expect that Favors will fall somewhere in between Blake Griffin (the best offensive player of the group) and Hasheem Thabeet or Shelden Williams (by far the worst offensive players of the group). The question is which end will Favors fall in.

Are you really taking the guy who barely produced over the guy with big numbers?

Yes. I like Favors attitude. I think he can make an impact rebounding the ball, defensively, shot blocking, and on post defense or on-off ball defense. These are all things that would make the Kings better.

Besides, Favors needs work on post moves, footwork, and learning how to use all his tools appropriately. There are worse places than plying your craft on a NBA team and learning how to play the game. I’m not sold college coaches develop players much for the NBA. (It’s one reason I don’t mind so many players leaving early.) Favors weaknesses are basically things that can become strengths as time goes on. Dwight Howard didn’t have a post game when he came into the NBA. He had athleticism, the body, the willingness to play defense, and generally play without the ball. I think he did okay his first couple years. And while I’m not saying that I see Favors being Dwight Howard Jr, I don’t see it being out of the total realm of possibility. I also think Tyreke Evans and Favors personalities will mesh too. You take all the other kids, and what do you got? Bibbity bobbity boo! (Okay, I always wanted to say that.)

As far as Cousins, you get a high usage, high maintenance player who, quite honestly, doesn’t create a great need for what he does. Gaudy stats as he possesses, I don’t think the weight of the conference has really been factored in much. With all due respect to those who think Favors under-achieved, it’s hard to imagine how a kid with his upside, his skills defensively, and his ability to impact the game didn’t do as much as he could. Does Favors have issues and moments where he does not succeed? Sure. People will point to the game vs OSU where Favors didn’t grab a single D-Board all game and fouled out. Those same people will be managing to omit Cousins last game, too. But what they’ll notice is the numbers. What will be forgotten that GA Tech was facing a superior opponent in OSU, and Kentucky was facing a beat up opponent in WVU.

Cole Aldrich had a similar rebound rate to Cousins, but I don’t see a lot of people clamoring to get him. If the Kings got 5th or 6th (absolute worst case scenario), you’re talking about Cole Aldrich vs Al-Farouq Aminu. And quite honestly I can live with that. Aldrich is a high quality player, and so is Aminu. Both have special attributes that make this team better. Regardless of faults that every young player tends to have. I don’t think I’m on the Epke Udoh bandwagon anymore.

Are you sure? You can take it back.

Nope. Not taking it back. For me Favors age, attitude, efficiency, ability on defense, ability to board at a high rate, block some shots, and the ability to play 2 positions trump what Cousins brings. Which is, of course, post offense and defense, rebounding, some blocked shots, and a mis match on the interior. I like Cousins game in many ways, but what surprised me when I looked deeper is that I don’t feel like there is a leap of faith being taken on Favors. To me, everything suggests that the numbers are saying that each player has their own strengths/weaknesses at this point, and their talent is roughly equal. If that’s the case, I’ll take Favors every time because he fits a greater need and much of his upside offensively could be reached with hard work and the right situation. Do I think that could be in Sacramento? Yes I do.

Am I crazy? Yes, I am. Until next time then.

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Responses

  1. […] This post was mentioned on Twitter by TimD, dc101. dc101 said: DeMarcus Cousins vs Derrick Favors « Evil Cowtown, INC: A …: On the other hand the question is how much does Joh… http://bit.ly/dez9hE […]

  2. Nice post but i disagree about some things…

    ~Evan Turner does not have a jumpshot now so that means he wont be able to shoot the rest of his basketball career? it’s not that hard to develope a jumpshot a lot of college players didn’t have as good of a jumpshot coming into the NBA and developed one.

    ~I still think if the Kings can get lucky and land the number 2 pick or something which isnt likely but still can happen they should draft Evan Turner because of 2 reasons.

    1) It’s not like the Kings have great depth at SG|SF anyway so why do they have to skip out on a swingman coming into the NBA that has extreme talent and potential? because of Donte Green and Garcia? I like them both but they are about as dependable as Thompson and Hawes the guys they have up front that everybody thinks is a huge weakness which I agree is but so are the guards.

    2) I think Demarcus Cousins or Derrick Favors can both be good but I don’t see either one being future great NBA bigs.Demarcus Cousins is big but he isn’t that big, he doesn’t remind me of a young Shaq at all I think the better comparision for him is Al Horford.Watching Horford play in Florida and Cousins in Kentucky they are both the same body type and have similar back to the basket type of games only Horford is quicker.I don’t really see how you came up with the Dwight Howard comparision either? unless Favors starts jacking up some steroid medicine he isn’t going to be anything close to Dwight Howard.I realize Dwight Howard wasn’t that big in college but I think he was a lot bigger than Favors is if you compare where they were at about the same age.Favors will get bigger but Dwight Howard’s game is based mostly off strength while Favors is more off quickness.Favors does not really have any skill offensively as we type so I think the safer pick is Demarcus Cousins just because I’ve seen him actually do more NOW not basing things on what can happen.Dwight Howard didn’t really have much post moves when he first came in the league and I still think he struggles with his post moves.It’s his defense that is dominating but his post moves have got better but I think he still does not have enough moves in the post to be called a great offensive player, he should be averging at least around 23 – 27ppg not 30 one night and 12 the next, even being in the league for as long as he has he is still inconsistent offensively.

    I agree about John Wall.

    • Well your point about Turner is nice, but isn’t that true of John Wall too? Neither guy has a 3 ball in his arsenal at this point so does that mean the Kings should draft one but not the other?

      “”I realize Dwight Howard wasn’t that big in college but I think he was a lot bigger than Favors is if you compare where they were at about the same age.Favors will get bigger but Dwight Howard’s game is based mostly off strength while Favors is more off quickness. Favors does not really have any skill offensively as we type so I think the safer pick is Demarcus Cousins just because I’ve seen him actually do more NOW not basing things on what can happen.””

      Dwight Howard didn’t go to college sparky. He came out of SW Christian HS in Atlanta. (Which coincidentally Josh Smith and Favors are from. They make ’em athletic down there don’t they?) With all due respect coming from someone who watches Dwight Howard a lot, Howard’s game is built off his immense quickness, strength and athletic ability. It’s a tandem of the 3. I’m not saying Favors will be Dwight Howard Jr. Maybe you missed the part where I said I wasn’t making direct comparisons to those players (and for this exact reason kf123). Just that both players remind me of Shaq/Dwight in some ways.

      If you’ve ever read me, you know I don’t believe in playing it “safe”. I hate that term. Every young player has issue’s, and every team has decisions to make come draft time. That’s why every team does it’s homework and what not.

      And, again, I’m not basing this on Favors “potential”. I’m talking about whether or not what Favors showed, the realistic things he showed during his freshman season, ARE translatable and useful in projecting a player moving forward.

      What I found was interesting. Do I want Favors more than Cousins? Yeah, and now I have stats to show why I felt that way in my gut. That was the point of this post.

  3. Question: Kings draw the 4th pick in the Lottery. Turner and Wall are drafted 1 and 2 or vice versa. The dubs surprisingly draft Favors ahead of Cousins with the 3rd pick. Should the Kings hold their noses, gulp and then tell Tyreke to go ahead and take Cousins or pass and draft another?

    I think character counts and my read of Petrie’s statement in your transcription (thanks again) regarding red flags and draft picks were directed squarely at the possibility of not taking Cousins if the chance arises.

    Petrie has made some sweet lemonade out of some draft lemons that other gms were quite ready to pass on. He has seen skill sets and possibilities others haven’t and in his tenure hasn’t drafted many total busts. The one area he hasn’t gambled on are character issues.

    Refer back to my question. Thanks.

    • Actually BJ, it was PW who said the thing about red flags, not GP.

      At that point, I think the Kings will look heavily at Al Farouq-Aminu (pronounced al fah-rook ah-meenu). Right now he’s 2nd on my draft board.

  4. […] DeMarcus Cousins vs Derrick Favors « Evil Cowtown, INC: A … […]

  5. Oh no wonder I never saw Dwight in college basketball??? I didnt know you can actually do that.

    He uses his quickness a lot on defense but offensively he overpowers people in the post kind of like Shaq did when he was younger.Shaq was also quick and used his athletic ability but I don’t believe either one of them would be the same player without there biggest strength: strength. At least offensively but defense is another story Shaq never reached his potential while Dwight Howard is the best big man defender in the league.

    • Shaq was generally pretty quick and athletic in his younger years. It wasn’t always about power with him. If he was only power, he wouldn’t be nearly as famous I can promise you that.

  6. With John Wall I wouldn’t draft him not because he can’t shoot but because I don’t think the Kings need another PG I’m fine with Tyreke and Beno running the Point Guard there.I wonder if anybody will pass up on John Wall and draft Turner or maybe one of the big guys with the 1st overall pick? or is John Wall pretty much a lock to be the first pick? I think Evans and Turner can fit a lot better with eachother than Evans and Wall because I would rather have Evans running the Point Guard and just becoming a PG for the rest of his career I think he’s better suited and creates more mismatches at that position than moving to shooting guard which he’ll have to do if the Kings draft Wall.

    I realize trading for a big man is hard to do and all that but if the Kings end up drafting Turner I would consider trying to trade for a guy like Chris Bosh if it’s possibile but I wouldn’t really want Amare Stoudamire for the reasons that you said a while back.I don’t know what type of deal the Raptors would want for Chris Bosh if they considered trading him but if the Kings end up drafting Turner than I wouldn’t think twice about trading Spencer Hawes or Thompson with somebody else for Chris Bosh.Will that ever happen or the Raptors even want to make that deal? I have no idea.I like Jason Thompson and I think he will be a good NBA player for years to come and I don’t hate Hawes guts too badly but I don’t think I would hold back from trading either one of them if the deal was right.Tyreke, Turner, and Bosh with a good supporting cast could be a great team I think anyway but a lot would have to happen for that to happen.I don’t know if you think thats an awful idea or not?

    If the Kings end up getting 3rd or 4th pick or something around there I have no problem with drafting Derrick Favors and let him develope to see how he turns out because he has a lot of physical tools that the nobody on the Kings have or have had in years so taking a chance on him is not a chance that I don’t mind taking at all I just think from what I’ve seen Evan Turner is going to have the best career out of everybody in this draft but that’s just what I see from watching him play I have not actually seen Favors play in an actual game other than highlights.

    • The only way the Kings could trade for Chris Bosh is through a S&T. As far as Evans, Turner and Bosh? I would hope that it would work, but hope is what I would have for it. I don’t think the Kings have enough beef up front with or without Bosh at the moment. It’s one reason I’ve pushed for Derrick Favors for so long. But, at the same time, need isn’t the only reason to draft a player.

      Rather than looking for reasons to draft a guy, I thought giving quality reasons like the guy is efficient offensively, a good rebounder, and excellent defender as reasons as to why the Kings would want him.

      As far as who will end up having the best career, that’s not going to be answered for some years. Even then, there will be some debate. I’m not sure figuring out who will have the best career is the goal of the draft.

  7. Well part of picking the BPA I mean that by best player now and will have the best career.Having the best career is important since whoever the Kings will be taking with such a high pick will be an important part of this franchise for the next 10 – 15 years.

    • Again, how does anybody know that really? Anybody can make informed guesses. How things work out tend to be luck. Are NBA experts surprised that LeBron James the best player out of the 2003 draft class? No, they’re not. On the other hand, though, they wouldn’t have been all that surprised if Carmelo Anthony or Chris Bosh or Dwyane Wade ended up being great players. The real surprise is how good overall the 2003 draft has become in terms of making an impact at the NBA level. People always think something is possible, but anytime there is a deep draft it usually is surprising because throughout NBA history, a deep/impacting draft is a pretty unusual feat.

      http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2003_NBA_Draft

      As far as who would be the BPA, let me ask this (and let this roll around your noggin some KF123): If the Thunder or Grizzlies take Tyreke Evans, do they help themselves?

  8. Interesting article Pookey. Lot’s of good stuff here. I am admittedly a DeMarcus Cousins fan, but Favors clearly brings a lot to the table. One of the things that captured my attention on watching the videos is how much Favors body changed between the High School clips and the College clips. He looks a lot wider and muscualar in college. After watching 5-10 Tech games this season, he also looks to be less athletic in College than he did in those HS videos. IMO his body changes make it seem like if he continues developing on that path, his position is going to be Center moreso than power forward. KenPom seemed to agree with this assessment in his last Draft rankings and I think I can agree, Favors projects to be a Center, so I think this comparison you wrote about is highly relevant.

    I couldn’t agree more that selecting Wall or Turner would be a bad fit for the Kings. I’m a golden gopher alum so I watch a lot of Big Ten Hoops, and Turner’s value seems to be his hesitation moves in his dribble drive game, and his passing ability while attacking the hoop. He also rebounds his position well. Those seem to be exactly Tyreke’s strengths. I don’t see those two guys reaching their potential as backcourt mates. I think a guy like Avery Bradley would be a good target to pair with Evans in the backcourt, a defensive menace with range and accuracy on his jumper. He is not a playmaker, but Evans is.

    My concerns long term is that if Favors body changes from a toned athlete to a more traditional big man body, and he loses some of that athleticism advantage due to having to carry more weight and muscle, I think I would rather have the guy with the more refined skill set than gambling on potential. Can 3 rebounds per 40 minutes really be from playing with Patterson instead of Lawal? I would think playing with more talent on the floor, which Cousins did, would hurt his rebounding numbers rather than help them, but you make good points about Patterson.

    Good call on trading for big men being problematic, the Wolves traded for Kevin Love as the BPA in his draft disregarding fit, and now they are stuck trying to trade a big and get both equal value and another big in return and it’s difficult. The only place where Franchise type big men are acquired are with lottery picks. Any big man who develops into a solid two way player is ultimately overpaid by the team that drafts them and only becomes available when their production fails to live up to their contract. In this sense, I think the Kings would be wise to disregard consensus thinking and take Favors or Cousins even with Wall or Turner on the board. Assuming of course they can’t trade down and get more value while still getting their guy.

    • Good points Ebomb. And within reason I don’t discount Cousins’ achivements on the whole. I think he will be an excellent rebounder and low post scorer.

      Your point about Favors bulking up and losing some of his athleticism is something that makes sense. Still, he’d be the most athletic player the Kings have on their roster (including Donte Greene). And its possible that Favors body could change to the point where he loses the elite athleticism at the NBA level.

      As far as the rebounding difference, my point really was that the ACC was the best rebounding conference and that’s why I wanted to display it. If you’re going to face other good rebounders, and you’re playing with other rebounders, it will hurt your numbers A LITTLE. I don’t think Cousins numbers are bad as much as I think Favors situation and circumstances probably hurt his production in an unusual way.

      You can mention UK’s talent, but UK’s talent wasn’t up front and a guy who did many of the same things as Favors in Lawal. My point was that Favors upside may be what many see in him, but I think the point was that he worked on 2 ends and did his thing when & where he could. It just wasn’t a situation where he was able to shine like Cousins. Would Favors have as many points/boards as Cousins at UK? I don’t know. Would Cousins done well at GA Tech? No way to know. All we really know is what DID happen and we can speculate on the rest.

      The fact is that neither Orton or Patterson have showed (yet) to be high level rebounders. (Patterson had a similar rate his sophomore year, but dropped again this season. He had a 17 DREB% rate his freshman season.) Does this mean that Patterson sucks at boarding? No. I just don’t think he’s as bad as he was this year or as good as he was last year.

      I enjoyed your comparison of Cousins and Favors awhile back even though it wasn’t in favor of Favors. (For those unaware.)

      http://www.canishoopus.com/2010/4/14/1422317/demarcus-cousins-and-derrick

      As far as Bradley, I haven’t done a ton of research on him, but you could be right. The biggest issue with Avery Bradley may be the fact that he is a poor foul shooter. I don’t like G’s that can shoot FT’s. There’s always a chance, though, that Bradley will be picked before the Kings select at 33. (Maybe when the Wolves pick at 23?)

      What I know is that the decisions and reasoning, other than where teams select, is going to be an interesting thing to note. Especially as we look back in upcoming years.

      Either way, thanks for stopping by Ebomb.

  9. My Noggin? you calling me a shithead?

    When I say who is going to have the best career I’m just making a prediction based off what I’ve seen of them playing in College or Highschool and how there game will translate to the NBA.I can be wrong a lot of times but it wasn’t hard to see Lebron was going to be the best player in that draft even know it was a great draft I don’t think there was anyway his talent couldn’t translate to the pros.I never really saw Lebron’s jumper in Highschool though? Because his jumpshot is still averge at best was it even worse in Highschool or has he not even improved whatsoever on his jumpshot?

    The Thunder and Grizzles draft picks were 2 picks that were obviously not going with the BPA and just fitting the team needs, although James Harden is a good young player and will get better he’s not even close to the talent of Tyreke BUT I agree with picking James Harden and not drafting Tyreke Evans for the same reasons I wouldn’t draft John Wall to the Kings.

    As far as Memphis is concerned I think they made a BUST draft pick in Hasheem Thabeet after his horrific rookie seasons it’s easy to say that but no matter what he works on I don’t see him being in the same league as Tyreke.I think we can both agree that Tyreke is a better draft pick than Hasheem Thabeet if you are not going based on needs and just drafting who do you think is the best prospect? maybe some people will disagree because Thabeet is a big man but I don’t think it’s even close.So why did the Grizzles pass up on Tyreke? because of Mike Conley? they are not in desperate need of a big man who can block shots that they pass up on a potential franchise player? Hasheem Thabeet will be a Samuel Dalembert at best in his career and Tyreke Evans has already accomplished a lot individually his rookie season.I get why Thunder passed up on him because Russell Westbrook but the Grizzles are not stacked with PGs or already have there guy at PG I don’t consider Mike Conley or whoever else they have good enough to pass up on the BPA which was Tyreke Evans at that point (although not many people knew it so maybe they just didn’t know how good Evans would be..I didn’t)

    I think Evans\Mayo\Gay\Randolph would be a nice young team that could of made the playoffs this season.Randolph calls for the ball inside a lot but Rudy Gay is very unselfish and OJ Mayo could fit in nicely also because he isn’t really a selfish player either (although it seemed like it when he was in highschool or whatever)

    Thunder, Agree.
    Memphis, disagree.

    I don’t know if what I said makes sense to anybody or not but if I was the Grizzles I would of selected Evans if not Ricky Rubio (which would of been a bust but they would be almost where there at with Thabeet right now) or I would select the little shrimp PG forgot his name but Wolves drafted him.

    Well thats just what I would of done you probally disagree but that’s what my nogger came up with.

    • Actually KF123, I think Memphis will look worse & worse for not taking Tyreke even though one can argue that is total hindsight. (I would argue that.)

      I agree about the Thunder with Harden. To me Evans or Rubio (doesn’t matter which), doesn’t really complement Westbrook at all. On the other hand, one can make the argument that Stephen Curry might have been a better pick. Do I think that would have been the case? I don’t know.

      At the time of the draft back in June, Petrie took a lot of criticism from national pundits and fans alike for drafting Evans. Now people are saying it was a clear mistake on Memphis’ part. (Some mention OKC, but I disagree.)

      Where I think Petrie did a good job of handling the draft process was where I thought the Kings were so good: They found out things that I’m not sure anyone else knew about Tyreke at draft time.

      For one, they found he could defend small G’s. They found out a little bit about his character. The fact is that Memphis almost always seems to draft in the dark when it comes to players.

      I’d much rather be a fan of the Kings than the Grizzlies, let me tell ya that.

  10. “I’d much rather be a fan of the Kings than the Grizzlies…”

    That says it all. That says it all. & I find that last point very reassuring going into the draft.

    If we’re aware of the fact that Turner or Wall wouldn’t be the right fit for the kings, you all know that Petrie ‘s been there and past that already.

    I’m confident that the right decision will be made; whomever is picked.

    & I enjoyed all the comments above, very entertaining and illuminating, thank you, gentlemen.

    • All I can say is I hope Petrie is right in whomever he takes. The first hurdle is the lottery first & foremost. We all know that.

      After we know where we’re picking, that’s the real debate time. And it will get fast & furious I do suspect.

  11. […] smackdown of efficiency for efficiency sake I spent a lot of time over a week ago talking about efficiency with regards to Cousins and Favors. So I thought I’d put in context with some NBA teams, big […]

  12. […] (I’ll skip the Kings. I’ve made my opinions clear on the subject.) […]

  13. […] Derrick Favors propaganda Last time I argued Cousins vs Favors, I left some things out (although I briefly discussed them) about how I see a potential DeMarcus […]

  14. […] already really discussed Cousins in the well forlorn piece Cousins vs Favors. I really don’t have anything to add to that, other than say that Cousins shot selection, […]


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